Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie—Seriously This Time

Want to know who won? Here’s a quick rundown of the fight.

** EDIT **
An anonymous source at Fairtex has confirmed that Royce has been training hard there for the past four months. It was also confirmed that despite all the hard work, his standup is absolutely horrendous.
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First of all, thanks for all the comments and input on our prevous Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie entry regardless of how retarded some of them may have been. I’ve decided to put together a “real” assessment of the fight, since that’s what most of you folks are out looking for.

Alrighty… so here’s a second time around this one. Careful analysis this time. No Less jokes.

Matt Hughes… hailing from Illinois, USA. 33 years old. Current welterweight title-holder of the UFC. A stout wrestler, his fortés are his incredible strength and resolve. Judging by the way he coached his guys in The Ultimate Fighter: Season 2, he is also a highly disciplined individual (*cough*asshole).

Hughes trains under the tutelage of Pat Miletich at the Miletich camp in Bettendorf, Iowa. The Miletich Fighting Systems are a mix of BJJ, American wrestling, Thai kickboxing, and Western boxing. Pat Miletich is a black belt in BJJ via Oswaldo Alves (Reyson Gracie).

Also notable is that Hughes has mentioned that much of what he has learned about MMA was through friend and training partner Jeremy Horn. Horn is among the most experienced of MMA fighters and is very skilled with ending fights by submission.

In the other corner… from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 40-year-old UFC Hall of Famer Royce Gracie. The man who started it all. The man who destroyed every brute placed opposite him in the octagon. Despite often remarkable weight differences, Royce proved to the world that Jiu-Jitsu could be used to defeat much bigger opponents.

Royce’s performance in the formative UFC events shocked the martial arts world, and spurred a dramatically increased interest in grappling arts. Business for the Gracie family boomed, and the diaspora of their fighting style commenced worldwide.

Since the peak of Royce’s career, mixed martial arts fighters worldwide began incorporating jiu-jitsu into their training regimen, creating a generation of fighters equally proficient in striking and grappling.

The Prediction

Alright. Brass tacks. We have two world-class grapplers who can’t throw a punch to save their lives. Let’s face it, if we placed these two in a K-1 striking-only match, they would tire themselves out before anybody was knocked out. Between the two of them, only Matt has one knockout against Scott “The Body” Johnson, but I wouldn’t even count that since Johnson’s record is 3-18-0.

I think it’s safe to say that this fight will be won on the ground… with Matt on top. Matt’s takedown defense is phenomenal, and I don’t think that Royce will be able to overpower him in that regard. Additionally, Royce coming from a mostly Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background makes him prone to pulling the guard and working from his back. While the guard may be technically more advantageous for Royce, in the eyes of the UFC judges, being on your back is bad. This puts Royce in a bad position if the fight comes down to a decision.

That being said, my prediction is that Matt will undoubtedly end up in Royce’s guard for most of the fight. Therefore, Royce has 2 choices: 1) Hold Hughes in his guard and lose by decision; or 2) Submit Hughes.

So the question now becomes whether the 4th degree black belt Royce Gracie will be able to maintain the guard and catch wrestler Matt Hughes in a submission. OK cool.. now we’re getting someplace.

Things Royce has Going for Him

• Superior grappling skills
• Matt has lost three times by submissions from men less skilled than Royce… definitely possible for Royce to get him.
• Royce has a trademark bjj guard, that is very difficult, if not impossible to pass.
• He knows that if he taps out, his family will disown him

Things Matt Hughes has Going for Him

• Hughes is much stronger
• Hughes is better at ground and pound. There is the small chance, by luck, or perhaps an unlucky situation on the cage fence, that Matt passes Royce’s guard and commences a ground and pound assault.
• Between the two of them, Hughes has the better chance of a striking knockout. Royce punches like a bitch. So we know that from standing, Royce’s only goal is to take it to the ground, and Hughes could mount a knockout strategy around this fact.
• Like I said, Hughes will without a doubt end up in Royce’s guard and be held there for I would say 60-80% of the fight. Royce will not be able to wear his gi, and it will be very difficult to submit a sweaty, angry Hughes.
• Hughes has more experience in “modern” MMA. What I consider to be the turning point when MMA athletes became much more well-rounded. Hughes has evolved… Royce hasn’t.
• Between rounds, he could have his twin brother sub in. Only thing worse than an asshole is two assholes.

So there you have it, folks. Hughes is the favorite. Like I said before, my hat’s off to Royce for his effort but submission or no submission, Royce is in for a beating. The man’s a legend, and at 40 years old, I think he should just retire.

It’s silly if he thinks that he can still hang with these guys. Modern fighters have taken everything the Gracies have taught the martial arts world and made it better. The honorable thing to do would be to accept this simple fact and be happy with the contributions they’ve made.

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